"The one other thing that people are really underestimating is the impact of entertainment-industry economics applied to education. Right now, with MOOCS,11Massive open online courses. About one-third of enrollees in the first year of MOOCs offered by Harvard and MIT were from North America. the production values are pretty low: You’ll film the professor in the classroom. But let’s just project forward. In ten years, what if we had Math 101 online, and what if it was well regarded and you got fully accredited and certified? What if we knew that we were going to have a million students per semester? And what if we knew that they were going to be paying $100 per student, right? What if we knew that we’d have $100 million of revenue from that course per semester? What production budget would we be willing to field in order to have that course?"
You could hire James Cameron to do it.
"You could literally hire James Cameron to make Math 101. Or how about, let’s study the wars of the Roman Empire by actually having a VR [virtual reality] experience walking around the battlefield, and then like flying above the battlefield. And actually the whole course is looking and saying, “Here’s all the maneuvering that took place.” Or how about re-creating original Shakespeare plays in the Globe Theatre?"
—Marc Andreessen (link)
“ A person will worship something, have no doubt about that. We may think our tribute is paid in secret in the dark recesses of our hearts, but it will come out. That which dominates our imaginations and our thoughts will determine our lives, and our character. Therefore, it behooves us to be careful what we worship, for what we are worshipping, we are becoming.”
A small PSA about my current role at IDEO NY. Back in May I became Ventures Lead, managing an effort to support and partner with early-stage businesses, as well as structure ways to design and launch new ventures. In some ways I will continue to do many of the same things, but the hope is that through this role we can devote more resources and be more intentional around the spaces we’re excited about.
As is the case with much of IDEO’s work, we see ourselves different from other practitioners in that we take a human-centered approach to designing ventures. We start by studying behaviors in the market, and employ a careful and disciplined process to surface insights that then inform how and what to build (I wrote in more detail about that here). We’re believers that this empathic design research methodology, along with our craft of storytelling, leads to greater market impact and ultimately more successful products and ventures.
We were fortunate enough to put some of this into practice in the past year. From within IDEO walls we incubated a quantified-self venture designed for women called Mira Fitness (not yet public) that we successfully financed and spun out. We were also able to work with exceptional teams at PillPack, Estimote, Greatist, Dragon, and others. In some cases we are designing and building towards their core product and mission, and in others we are structuring partnerships to prototype and build for our core design and innovation work.
If you or someone in your network sees value in our approach or could be strong collaborators on any of the above, I’d love to connect.
[Not everything I write on Tumblr I post to Medium, and vice versa. This was originally posted on my Medium page.]
digital networks are nuanced; the medium shapes the message
When early online networks were first introduced, it was natural to question how offline behaviors might translate to the web. To wonder how communication would look in digital form. What we’ve seen take shape over the past several years, however, is that these networks create and enable behaviors unique to the medium. The environments of tumblr, instagram, snapchat, etc.— the new “networked publics” as they’re sometimes called— are textured in ways that don’t belong too rooted in their early analog forms. Danah Boyd put it this way:
Networked technologies reorganize how information flows and how people interact with information and each other. In essence, the architecture of networked publics differentiates them from more traditional notions of publics … the ways in which technology structures them introduces distinct affordances that shape how people engage with these environments. The properties of bits — as distinct from atoms — introduce new possibilities for interaction. As a result, new dynamics emerge that shape participation.
It wasn’t a translation, then, that we should have anticipated, but instead a reinvention of community, communication, and exchange. Harnessing the dynamism and flexibility of the web has led us to more intricate and unique experiences, and presuming that people wanted to simply replicate their offline dealings online was indeed myopic.
We’ve since had a chance to monitor these new behaviors online, the depths of which are very much still forming. How we communicated over the web looked dramatically different in the shift to mobile, only to find newer behaviors in mobile via tablet. Now mobile has broadened to include wearables, where again we should expect to see new forms of communication and sharing.
While some argue whether these newer experiences are in fact richer, few debate the overall volume of choice at our disposal. The choices embedded in these platforms have granted several affordances that weren’t possible prior to the network era. In a 2010 essay, “Social Networks as Networked Publics”, these affordances were outlined as:
I’d add to that list a couple others:
Transferability: Facebook Connect + contact list means unlocking your network in new environments on day one. Lowers the barrier-to-entry of new networks significantly as it keeps switching costs low.
Malleability: Filters, fonts, and other touches allow us to alter communication from their original form. These transformations, both subtle and extreme, provide for mood and style for greater forms of expression.
As the web and the platforms that govern it mature, our interactions will necessarily become more textured. While the above affordances should be considered tremendous breakthroughs in how human relationships connect in the network era, they come with unintended consequences and also beg for “follow-on” affordances that the citizens of the web will newly require. One area on my mind recently that the web has yet to carefully consider but hopefully soon permission is collapsing contexts.
Prior to the network era, we were accustomed to preserve unique identities across networks. I could easily maintain a persona/identity at work that might be different from my family vs acquaintances vs close friends vs church, etc. “Context collapse” refers to the phenomenon, partly as a result of the above listed affordances, that the contexts we previously maintained begin to blur. As our previously disparate networks converge on these platforms there exists an inconsistency around who we claim and exhibit ourselves to be in these spaces. We are either left to unify our identity across these networks or expose a contradiction (Jenny Davis and Nathan Jurgenson’s writing on the subject (here and here) dives deeper into the subject).
Contexts collapse when you accept connections from a variety of disparate groups all on the same network (e.g. FB requests from family + work colleagues), when you create content on one network that you opt or automatically pushes to another (e.g. pushing your 4sq/Swarm check-in to twitter), or when other services are manually or automatically bridging these network divides (e.g. IFTTT, Rapportive). Visually it might look something like this. We’ve taken something that used to exhibit a relatively uninterrupted, clean network structure like this:
..into something more like this:
More nodes, much more overlap. And this second image above might represent the overlap of just a single network. Consider what this looks like across the dozen networks we are typically synced with at a given time. This chart by Fred Stutzman shows the evolution/demand of privacy in social networks as diversity of audience grows over time:
The ramifications of this unintended effect is that we sometimes protect or conceal our communication to avoid a “collapse.” And we’ve recently seen this play out— Facebook updated their privacy settings so that the default for broad sharing will be for “friends” instead of “anyone.” On the surface it seems to violate the notion that more broad sharing of content will encourage even more sharing. But while Facebook presented it as an update after user feedback, it feels fairly obvious that Facebook stands to gain from such a move. The premise being that that we may share more, engage more, when we have comfort that what we share will not trigger a context collapse.
So how does digital solve for context collapse? How do we potentially account for the “the messy web”—
the significance of accounting for face-to-face socialites and material contexts with which social media are co-implicated.
Well, the promise of contextual computing seems to solve for some of this. If our technologies can better understand context, they can take action on our behalf. Ideally, messages are always shared with who should see them and never with anyone who shouldn’t. But we are still a ways off. The depth of understanding required to accurately make these decisions is complex to say the least. It must account for your full and social graph as it relates to your beliefs, stereotypes, and curiosities at a highly specific level.
In the meantime, this is a manual process. We’ve seen networks at scale, notably fb, create “groups” to organize contacts so that the permissions are cleaner and more structured (e.g. creating a “family” group that only certain photos are shared with). Ephemeral networks are by their very nature preserving context by giving the utmost discretion over who views and how long something is viewed for each message. We’ve also seen interesting “intro a friend” behaviors from newer platforms that make for creative new linkages. And most recently, we’ve seen the introduction of “micro-communities” to allow for richer conversations with just the relevant network on a given subject. As more and more platforms converge, though, there arises a need for an overarching layer— an intelligent dashboard— that sits above networks to further organize information. Just because the services are designed in their own narrow terms doesn’t mean users shouldn’t control them in the terms that make sense for them.
The natural evolution of the network era will be to account for this fuller context. This period won’t feel complete until our systems are designed to understand how our networks sit alongside each other and serve the interests of its users in the ways most relevant to them.
“ Entrepreneurs are often given two pieces of contradictory advice: persistence and flexibility. Have a vision and pursue it through years of people telling you you’re out of your mind. Or, be flexible: look at data, iterate, and change based on the signals you’re getting. There isn’t an actual algorithm. You have an investment thesis about why this project is likely to work and have some outside result, and usually that’s expressed in a set of statements and hypotheses, that if you’re right about, adds up like a logical proof and gives you the output you’re looking for. And you can have varying level of confidence in how these pieces are adding up and supporting your theses.” “The challenge is to follow them both, but know which advice is most appropriate for which situation. You must know how to maintain flexible persistence.”
Instructive illustration of the value of behavioral insight in the story of Samuel Morse.
"Even technical inventions are defined, in many ways, by their non-technical impact on the world, by what they enable for people in their lives. Let’s talk about the telegraph and its inventor — or one of the inventors — Samuel Morse.
Samuel Morse was actually an artist for the first half of his life, and he painted portraits professionally. He landed this sweet gig in New York painting the famous Revolutionary general Lafayette. Morse was a huge fan, so he got pretty stoked about this, and he wrote letters to his wife back home in Connecticut just beaming with excitement and pride. But she would never read those letters, because back home she had fallen ill, and then later died. The letters from his family explaining the situation hadn’t shown up yet because they had to be delivered on horse, which took like a week to do. So then the dude invents instantaneous cross-country communication.”
(full post of how here)
Brian Eno, long-time composer and musician, has a philosophy about music that he sums up as “surrender.” At the moment of surrender, the listener acknowledges that the piece, not themselves, is in control. According to Eno, crossing this threshold is the point at which you’ve created something special.
Surrender is an active choice not to take control. It is an active choice to be part of the flow of something. We enjoy surrender situations.
He takes this theory further to assert that when you consider some of the realms of human experience that we covet most: art, sex, drugs, religion … surrender is the thread that binds them all. We crave when we can ultimately bestow control to some other force. We are, apparently, physically engineered to lose ourselves in something else.
The paradox in this of course is that we worship control. We dignify power and autonomy and those that wield it. And we consistently seek for ourselves a supreme level of authority over our own lives. The paradox is only intensified by our regular dismissal of people and ideas that surrender. Expressions of surrender or submission in every day life are considered forms of weakness.
The products we use seem to dignify this same control ideal. Since listening to Eno’s talk, I’ve found myself categorizing services I use by whether they optimize for control or surrender. Mailbox gives me control over who and when I respond to email. Instagram literally offers filters to control how I view the world I am experiencing. Instapaper lets me control when and what I read in the format of my choosing. IFTTT allows me to control interactions between services that the services themselves have yet to consider. Almost all of the products I use not only afford control, but communicate it as the sole value they offer.
But if the human experiences we delight in most are where we ultimately surrender, then why are products we use so insistent at giving us more control? Why do we seemingly seek a controlled and refined human experience instead of an honest, raw relationship with the world around us?
This is something I’m grappling with, but I have a few theories:
Information has become easier & harder: The increased availability of data and the infrastructure of the internet have done two things. It’s created a wealth of information with which to harness for more varied and dynamic experiences. Maybe these products are resting on the underlying assumption that a textured experience is a better one. The other thing that has happened, due to the same wealth of available information, is that its become harder to derive signal from noise. To accurately tag, store and retrieve data to present back to a user in meaningful ways has become a great and growing technical challenge. I think many of the products we use are, without necessarily knowing it, solving for this problem first and foremost.
We’re overindulged: Expectations have risen for personalization and contextualization:
"If content is king, context is God" #habitsummit— Nir Eyal (@nireyal)March 25, 2014
It seems it’s no longer good enough that content be intelligent; you need to consider the nuance that dials your message to an audience in their context. Partly in response to the deluge of new information available, there is a growing expectation that its being used. The catch is that because the tech isn’t fully there, it requires our participation. Certainly not zero sum, but in seeking context we forefront complexity, slowly stripping out the delight that lives in the simple.
There is also an interesting space where the blend of control and surrender can unlock unique potential. In other words, how are surrender experiences made more immersive by providing for an initial form of control. Take Treehouse by Interlude. They’re taking a medium that is entirely passive and surrendering, video, and marrying it with choice to create a more engaging dynamic. If they’re an indication of whats ahead, the future is exciting. Eno talked a bit about this confluence:
A good analogy is surfing … when you watch someone surfing … they take control momentarily. They situate themselves on a wave and then they surrender … they’re carried along by it. And then they take control again. and then they surrender.
Maybe we are in store for more blended experiences like Treehouse. From what I’ve seen though, striking the balance between these extremes without imbuing complexity is a significant challenge.
Eno’s concept of surrender has shifted how I think about product, and its become in many cases a first filter when I try new technologies. For product builders, there might be great hidden value in optimizing for it. It may just be that creating engaging experiences isn’t by granting control, but by taking it away, by allowing people to fully immerse themselves in your product by losing themselves in it.
Pathology is defined as “the precise study and diagnosis of disease.” The subject’s name is derived from the Greek word pathos, which means “experience” or “suffering.” Medical students typically take up this course on illness in their first year of medical school. They study the varying afflictions that grieve the human body, and are trained to identify and differentiate what these sufferings might be.
In fact, most of what an early medical student is taught (anatomy, histology, biochemistry) is not the medicine that they will eventually prescribe, but the nature and dynamism of the patient they will encounter. Only after understanding the human body and its intricacies at a detailed level should she conclude a diagnosis and prepare a suitable treatment.
If I can draw a parallel from medical literacy to the technology sector today, my sense is that technologists are delivered a highly reversed set of instruction. If programming holds the potential “tech medicine,” then our community rushes to equip itself before first clarifying what it will be used to address. So its not the subject of computer science itself that I contend with, but more the sequence and relative weight of its given importance.
The value of the discipline feels quite clear to me. The rationale is that to solve problems one needs to have command of the range of potential (technological) solutions. To go out and actually effect change you need a grasp of the complexity of tools needed. Another equally important reason: you need to speak the language of those on your team who are building as well. I’ve learned the hard way on that one.
Part of the importance of programming literacy is the problem-solving mentality it induces, but more importantly, the ability to build and/or understand systems that automate work or make work efficient is increasingly valuable in today’s business climate, where tech touches everything. -Shane Snow, Why You Need To Know Code
I love that. I completely agree, which is why I’ve made strides to learn myself. I’ve taken an intro CS class. I had an informal iOS tutor. Earlier last year, with significant mentorship from a fellow IDEO’r, I was able to build a rough version of a social app in iOS I was curious to test.
But since I’ve grown in the venture and technology space over the past seven years, I’ve heard with increasing intensity, perhaps now to a reckless level, the need to develop a computer science proficiency (“Everyone should learn to code. Especially “business people” should learn to code”).
Yet the underlying and glaring assumption in almost all these calls to action is that you’ve sufficiently diagnosed the problem you’re solving. We tend to assume the entrepreneur has surfaced a resonance within a market around whom she plans to build. But this is not frequently the case.
So might the order of operations here be a bit off? Is it possible that we should be attempting to first learn and understand the techniques to surface such human / user / customer resonance, and then assemble the tools with which to build? The order as it is currently stands may significantly underestimate the subtleties required to create truly innovative products. We see time and time again when a product, not attacking a new problem by any means, breaks into mainstream consumption because of a narrow set of features that users “just get”. The Mailbox app comes first to mind. I’ve come to believe that the founders who go on to grow successful businesses are either innately attune to these needs, arrive at them through a slower, iterative learning process, or in other cases get lucky.
And to be sure, some of this empathic thinking has emerged. As entrepreneurship has flourished, there’s more written for technologists toget out and talk to users. But its still in many cases an afterthought and still not spoken at a volume that many founders hear or in the sequence that may be appropriate. The Google Ventures design team, who borrow some of IDEO’s philosophies for their approach, have one of the best resources on how to do this in a more methodical way.
Software is indeed the backbone of innovation in the digital era. Teams that can harness computer science in powerful ways will continue to transform the world. But please, bring the sociologists and ethnographers into the room. Let’s get better trained in diagnostics to better interpret user needs and then develop the technical skills, by learning or through partnership, to put the desirous solution together. Bring on the pathology.
I’ve been reading Daniel Kahneman’s book, “Thinking, Fast and Slow" over the past few weeks. It’s a fascinating read on the way we interpret the world around us and how we believe what we believe. But it’s a long read, chock full of studies and illustrative examples. So many that I find myself fearing that I’m going to lose them almost as soon as I’m done reading them. In an attempt to help remember, I decided to pause from the reading and go back and type out a few of the parts I had initially underlined:
When confronted with a problem … the machinery of intuitive thought does the best it can … When the question is difficult, and a skilled solution is not available intuition still has a shot: an answer may come to mind quickly- but it is not an answer to the original question. The question that hte executive faced (should I invest in Ford stock?) was difficult, but the answer to an easier and relationed question (do I like Ford cars?) came readily to his mind and determined his choice. This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult questions, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.”
As you become skilled in a task, its demand for energy diminishes. Studies of the brain have shown that the pattern of activity associated with an action changes as skill increases, with fewer brain regions involved. Talent has similar effects, highly intelligent individuals need less effort to solve the same problems, as indicated by both pupil size and brain activity. A general “law of least effort” applies to cognitive as well as physical exertion. The law asserts that if there are several ways of achieving the same goal, people will eventually gravitate to the least demanding course of action. In the economy of action, effort is a cost, and the acquisition of skill is driven by the balance of benefits and costs. Laziness is built deep into our nature.
The psychology of accurate intuition involves no magic … Herbert Simon, who studied chess masters and showed that after thousands of hours of practice they come to see the pieces on the board differently from the reset of us … “The situation has provided a cue; this cue has given the expert access to information stored in memory, and the information provides the answer. Intuition is nothing more and nothing less than recognition.”
Simple common gestures can also unconsciously influence our thoughts and feelings. In one demonstration, people were asked to listen to messages through new headphones. They were told that the purpose of the experiment was to test the quality of the audio equipment and were instructed to move their heads repeatedly to check for any distortions of sound. Half the participants were told to nod their head up and down while others were told to shake it side to side. The messages they heard were radio editorials. Those who nodded tended to accept the message they heard but those who shook their head tended to reject it. Again there was no awareness, just a habitual connection between an attitude of rejection or acceptance and its common physical expression. You can see why the common admonition to “act calm and kind regardless of how you feel” is very good advice; you are likely to be rewarded by actually feeling calm and kind.
A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth. Markets have always knows this fact. But it was psychologists who discovered that you do not have to repeat the entire statement of a fact or idea to make it appear true. People who were repeatedly exposed to the phrase “the body temperature of a chicken” were more likely to accept as true the statement that “the body temperature of a chicken is 144 degrees” (or any other arbitrary number.)